I predict President Obama will be re-elected narrowly. Among the swing states, it looks to me that Romney will definitely win Florida and North Carolina, two states where the polls show him leading. I think he will also take Virginia and Colorado where the polls are extremely close. These results combined with the states that are safely in his column will bring him to 257 electoral votes. However, from there, it doesn't look like he can go any further. The most important state for him to win is Ohio and almost all the polls show him losing. Of course they are quite close - only a couple of points. So, maybe if all the pollsters are making an error in their turnout predictions they could be wrong. However, it seems unlikely that they are all wrong. The other states where he could win seem like they are even an steeper climb. Republicans always say they have a chance in Pennyslvania but they never win there in presidential elections so I am skeptical about that. Without Pennsylvania or Ohio, he'll have to win several other states - for example Wisconsin and Iowa. It's possible but I think it's more likely he'll come up short.
